Fundamental Analysis
Gold remains under pressure as price continues to trade below the main EMA structure. Traders are still watching USD strength, Treasury yields, and upcoming U.S. macro data.
For now, the technical structure still favours sellers while recovery attempts are rejected from the value sell zone.
Technical Analysis
On the 1H chart, XAUUSD is trading below EMA 34, EMA 89, and EMA 200. The EMA structure is still pointing lower, showing that the short-term trend remains bearish.
Price recently tested the value range around 4,210 – 4,225 but failed to break higher. This rejection shows that buyers are still weak, while sellers continue to defend the EMA downtrend.
The order sell zone around 4,185 – 4,204 has also reacted well. After touching this area, price rejected and moved lower again, confirming that the sell zone is still valid.
As long as gold stays below 4,204 – 4,225, the bearish continuation setup remains active. The main downside target is the Fibonacci and liquidity convergence zone around 4,066.
Important Key Levels
Current price area: 4,177
Order sell zone: 4,185 – 4,204
Value range resistance: 4,210 – 4,225
EMA resistance area: 4,234 – 4,270
Short-term support: 4,140 – 4,120
Fibonacci liquidity target: 4,066 – 4,064
Invalidation area: above 4,225
Trading Scenario
Main Sell Scenario
Entry: 4,185 – 4,204
Stop Loss: 4,225
Take Profit 1: 4,140
Take Profit 2: 4,100
Take Profit 3: 4,066 – 4,064
Sell Condition
The preferred setup is to continue focusing on sell positions while price stays below the value range and EMA resistance.
The sell zone has already reacted well, showing rejection from 4,185 – 4,204. If price retests this area and forms another bearish rejection, the sell continuation setup remains valid.
A break below 4,140 would strengthen bearish momentum and open the way toward 4,100, then the Fibonacci liquidity target around 4,066 – 4,064.
Entry Conditions
Wait for price to stay below 4,204.
Look for bearish rejection on any retest.
A break below 4,140 confirms stronger downside pressure.
If price breaks and holds above 4,225, the sell setup is invalid.
Overall, the main view remains bearish while XAUUSD trades below EMA 34, EMA 89, EMA 200, and the value range resistance. The sell zone has already rejected price, so the preferred plan is to continue focusing on bearish continuation toward 4,140, 4,100, and 4,066.
Do you share the same bearish view on gold, or are you waiting for another retest of the order sell zone?