Gold is trading around $4,088 after recovering from the low near $3,958. The short-term reaction is bullish, but the H4 structure is not fully reversed yet. Price is now moving between a lower buy liquidity zone and a higher medium-term sell OB zone, so chasing the middle range is not ideal.
From an SMC perspective, gold created a CHoCH near the lower area and started to push upward. This shows that buyers are trying to defend the lower demand zone. However, above the current price, there are still major liquidity and supply areas that may attract selling pressure again.
The key buy zone is $4,013–$4,027. If gold pulls back into this zone and buyers defend it with clear bullish confirmation, price may continue toward $4,110–$4,125, then $4,175–$4,195. The main sell reaction zone is $4,175–$4,195, where the medium-term OB is located. If price reaches this area and fails to break higher, sellers may return.
Buy setup 1
Condition:
Gold pulls back into the $4,013–$4,027 buy liquidity zone and confirms bullish MSS / CHOCH on lower timeframe.
Entry: $4,013–$4,027
SL: below $3,985
TP1: $4,088
TP2: $4,110–$4,125
TP3: $4,175–$4,195
Buy setup 2
Condition:
If gold breaks above the liquidity zone around $4,110–$4,125 and retests it as support, bullish continuation remains valid.
Entry: $4,110–$4,125 after breakout retest
SL: below $4,075
TP1: $4,150
TP2: $4,175–$4,195
TP3: $4,222
Sell setup
Condition:
Gold reaches the medium-term OB sell zone around $4,175–$4,195 and shows bearish rejection with MSS / CHOCH confirmation.
Entry: $4,175–$4,195
SL: above $4,222
TP1: $4,125
TP2: $4,088
TP3: $4,027
Key levels
Current price area: $4,088
Buy liquidity zone: $4,013–$4,027
Low area: $3,958
Liquidity zone: $4,110–$4,125
FVG area: $4,130–$4,160
Medium-term OB sell zone: $4,175–$4,195
Buy-side liquidity: $4,222
Month high: $4,383
Bullish confirmation: clean break above $4,125
Bearish reaction confirmation: rejection from $4,175–$4,195
Bullish invalidation: clean H4 close below $3,985
My current view is that gold is in a recovery phase after taking lower liquidity, but the safest Prime Gold plan is still to wait for price to reach major liquidity zones. I prefer buying only around the $4,013–$4,027 liquidity zone with confirmation, and watching for sell reaction if price reaches the $4,175–$4,195 OB zone.
No confirmation, no trade.