Gold is currently compressing within the Monday Range, sitting at approximately $4,530. We are looking for a clear liquidity grab or a structural break before committing to a long position toward the higher targets.
The Setup
The daily timeframe shows a recovery from recent lows, but price is currently trapped between Monday’s High and Low. To minimize risk, we are waiting for one of two specific price action behaviors.
Scenario A: The Liquidity Sweep (High Conviction)
This is the preferred entry for a high Risk/Reward (R:R) trade.
The Move: Price dips below Monday’s Low (~$4,411) to sweep sell-side liquidity.
The Trigger: Look for a sharp displacement candle back up on the H4 or M15 timeframe immediately after the sweep.
Entry: Enter on the retest of the resulting Fair Value Gap (FVG).
Advantage: This allows for a much tighter stop loss below the new swing low, offering superior R:R.
Scenario B: The Break of Structure (Momentum Entry)
If the bears can’t push price down to the liquidity pool, we wait for a confirmed shift in market structure.
The Move: A strong H4 candle close above Monday’s High (~$4,590).
The Trigger: A clear Break of Structure (BOS) with conviction (full body candle close).
Entry: Enter on the subsequent pullback to the broken high or an internal OTE (Optimal Trade Entry) level.
Advantage: Confirmed trend continuation, though with a slightly wider stop and lower R:R than Scenario A.
Key Levels to Watch
Resistance/Targets: $4,680 | $4,736 (CRTH)
Support/Pivot: $4,411 (Monday Low)
Invalidation: A sustained H4 close below the “SL Below” zone marked on the chart (~$4,100 area).
Note: Be patient. Let the market come to your levels rather than chasing the current mid-range chop.
#NFA