The sfpL from the last Idea (Automate ST Strategy) played out for an 8% move despite the filters suggesting otherwise. Now the mirror signal fires from the top of the range.
OBV 50 is positive but 9/26 are both negative slope which is genuine confirmation for SFP short signals. ROC Regime shows momentum to the upside, but the 8hr is laggy and still below zero. Regime Factor at 0.40 coming off a strong XU through the upper boundary to the neutral zone which is the sweet-spot to take a trade to the downside.
Price is tested the 50-day moving average, held above with a bearish wick, weak signal. The 10-week sits confluent with the center of the range around $68,000. A 3.5% move from here.
Price is back within the ATR window of the original sfpS entry. Same level, same structure.
This is a SFP scalp short to the 10w confluence zone. 50% TP there. If it bounces, close it. This range is going to squeeze every short who overstays. But if the position is sized to risk and not to conviction, you can afford to find out whether this is a scalp or the start of the confutation of the down trend.
A nice tight stop at .75 ATR over entry would yield a 3R Short scalp. these kind of trades are actually good risk reward…Bonus, plenty of liquidity staircased below for grinding long squeeze to give it some juice if it goes in our favor.
How “Sizing to Risk” Works
Two percentages work together. They are not the same thing.
Stop % – % how far from entry the stop is placed.
Risk % – % of your account balance you are willing to lose on this trade.
– 0.5% Prop trader
– 1.5% Edge
– 3.0% Degen
This Scalping Example: $10,000 balance, Prop 0.5% Risk, 1.5% Stop
Max loss (0.5% of $10K) $50
Stop distance 1.5% from entry
Position size ($150 / 1.5%) $3,333
Stop price $72,500
Wider stop = smaller position. Tighter stop = bigger position. Your dollar risk stays the same.