DAILY PLAN | XAUUSD
Oct 20 plan review: Scenario 1 SELL 4148 triggered at 10:15 AM ET, hit TP1 4136 and TP2 4124; the 4117 low stopped about 9 points short of TP3 4108.
Wednesday Oct 21, 2026 – H1 chart – Price at plan time (7:15 PM ET, Oct 20): 4118
1. Market structure
– D1: Gold is still ranging inside the broad 4066–4228 box since late September, but the highs inside the range keep getting lower: 4227 → 4217 → 4199 → 4190 → 4155. The Oct 20 daily candle made a 4111 low and closed at 4125 with a long upper wick after rejection at 4155. The range floor at 4066–4073 has not been retested.
– H4: Lower highs and lower lows since 4190 (Oct 19): lows 4129 → 4115 → 4111. The Oct 20 evening H4 candle spiked to 4155 and closed at 4121, leaving a very long upper wick that confirms heavy selling above.
– H1/M15: After the rejection at 4155, price fell steadily to 4117. The early Asian bounce on Oct 21 only reached 4131 before being sold again, forming a lower high. Price is now pressing toward the 4111–4117 support.
2. Key price zones
– Resistance 4150–4156: top of the Oct 20 evening spike (4155), clear rejection wick on H1/H4.
– Resistance 4136–4144: the overnight breakdown area and the Oct 20 midday H1 highs (4136–4144), the nearest SELL zone.
– Support 4111–4117: the Oct 20 lows (4111–4113) and the overnight low (4117).
– Support 4099–4104: the Oct 15 low (4099) and the Oct 8 and Oct 6 lows (4103).
– Strong support 4066–4085: the D1 range floor (Oct 7 and Oct 14).
3. Main scenarios
Scenario 1 – SELL the pullback into resistance (preferred, with H1/H4 structure)
– Entry zone: 4136–4144, Entry 4140
– Trigger: price pulls back into 4136–4144 and prints a rejection candle on H1/M15 (long upper wick, bearish engulfing)
– SL: 4149
– TP1: 4126 | TP2: 4112 | TP3: 4100
– R:R: 1:1.6 / 1:3.1 / 1:4.4
Scenario 2 – BUY at deeper support 4099–4104 (range bounce on D1)
– Entry zone: 4099–4104, Entry 4103
– Trigger: price reaches 4099–4104 with a false break or a bullish pin bar/engulfing on H1/M15, and no H1 close below 4099
– SL: 4094
– TP1: 4115 | TP2: 4127 | TP3: 4136
– R:R: 1:1.3 / 1:2.7 / 1:3.7
4. Alternative scenarios
– If H1 closes below 4111 and a retest of 4111–4115 is rejected: a breakout SELL is possible, targets 4104 then 4090, SL above 4120.
– If H1 closes above 4149: the H1 bearish structure weakens; drop the 4140 SELL and wait for a reaction at 4150–4156 to look for a new SELL; consider BUY only on an H1 close above 4156.
5. Invalidation
– Scenario 1 is invalid on an H1 close above 4149, or if price hits 4112 before pulling back to 4136–4144.
– Scenario 2 is invalid on an H1 close below 4094 (opening the way to 4066–4085), or if price reaches 4136 before reaching the entry zone.
– No new entries within 15 minutes of high-impact news.
6. Conclusion
The intraday bias leans bearish: lower highs on D1, H4 and H1, the spike to 4155 was sold hard, and price is pressing the 4111–4117 support. Prefer SELL on a pullback into 4136–4144 with a rejection candle; BUY is only a secondary plan at 4099–4104 with clear holding signals. News to watch (ET): 10:30 AM EIA crude inventories, 1:00 PM 20-year Treasury bond auction. Today’s calendar is light, so price is likely to follow technical structure. The Fed is in its blackout period ahead of the Oct 27–28 meeting. Check spread before entering.
Note: This is personal analysis for reference only, not investment advice. Gold trading carries high risk; manage your capital and take responsibility for your own decisions.