GBP/USD is trading near 1.35200, but the fundamental picture for the pound remains mixed. The British currency received support from the general weakening of the dollar amid hopes for easing tensions around Iran. However, its resilience looks fragile because the UK remains sensitive to expensive energy and to the risks of slower economic growth.
UK data came in stronger than expected: in February, the economy grew by 0.5% month-on-month against a forecast of 0.2%, supported by the services sector and car production. But the market is looking ahead and is already assessing future costs for businesses and households. The Bank of England is making it clear that it will not rush its rate decisions, since the consequences of the energy shock are still uncertain.
For the pair, this means that the pound’s upside potential may fade quickly. Even against the backdrop of improved external sentiment, the British currency remains vulnerable if energy prices start rising again or if the market lowers its expectations for the Bank of England’s rate outlook. At the same time, the US economy looks resilient, while the labor market continues to support expectations that the current rate will remain unchanged. Under these conditions, the base-case scenario for today points to a move lower in GBP/USD.
Trading recommendation: SELL 1.35200, SL 1.35500, TP 1.34300