- Gold prices remain strong and trending upward.
Over the past 24 hours, gold prices have experienced rollercoaster-like fluctuations, initially falling before rising.
Currently, gold prices are exhibiting a typical “low open, high close” pattern, primarily influenced by the sudden deterioration of the Middle East situation over the weekend. This “rapid rebound after a sharp drop” pattern is remarkably similar to the rebound pattern following last Monday’s low open, with the market viewing the $4740 level as a key short-term support.
What are the main developments in the latest news?
The core event chain is as follows:
Event 1: Iran Refuses to Participate in the Second Round of Talks
Iran explicitly refused to participate in the second round of US-Iran talks, effectively ending the “Islamabad talks.” Simultaneously, the Strait of Hormuz was closed again, and US forces fired on and seized Iranian merchant ships in the Gulf of Oman.
Event 2: Ceasefire Agreement About to Expire
The two-week temporary ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran is set to expire on April 22 (this Wednesday), representing the biggest uncertainty at present. If the two sides fail to renew the agreement, conflict could reignite; if an extension agreement is reached, the geopolitical risk premium will continue to decline. The second round of ceasefire negotiations is currently scheduled for April 22-23, and its progress will be the focus of market attention this week.
Event Three: Soaring Oil Prices Exacerbate Inflation Concerns
The aforementioned geopolitical events have exacerbated global energy risks, leading to a sharp rise in international oil prices and intensifying market concerns about inflation. Rising inflation expectations have further dampened market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, causing the dollar index to rise to a one-week high, putting significant pressure on gold prices.
Event Four: Fed Officials Release Dovish Signals (Latest Developments)
Fed official Goolsby stated that he still believes interest rates will remain low for the next 12 to 18 months, with short-term inflation expectations rising but long-term expectations remaining stable.
Furthermore, Trump’s “the sooner the better” remarks have raised concerns about the Fed’s independence, causing the dollar index to plummet by more than 1% intraday, hitting a three-year low, further pushing up the prices of non-US assets such as gold and cryptocurrencies.
What changes have occurred in market trading logic?
Currently, the market is in a tug-of-war between “geopolitical games” and “interest rate cut expectations.”
Whether the ceasefire agreement reached on April 22 will be extended will be a key factor determining short-term price movements.
If the agreement is extended, geopolitical risk premiums will further decline, and gold prices may continue to rebound.
If negotiations break down and conflict reignites, safe-haven demand will once again dominate the market.
Support Levels:
First support level is at $4772 (today’s pullback low),
Second support level is at $4734 (today’s early morning low/bullish support level),
Third support level is at $4693 (close to the April opening price).
Resistance Levels:
First resistance level is at $4830 (gap fill level),
Second resistance level is at $4850-$4865 (previously high-volume area),
Strong resistance level is at $4880-$4910.
Trading Strategy? Strategy 1: Buy on Dips (Conservative Strategy)
Entry Point: Buy with a small position when the price retraces to the $4772-$4780 area (close to Monday’s low) and shows signs of stabilization.
Target Price: First target price $4830-$4850, second target price $4880
Stop-Loss Price: Below $4750
Strategy: Sell at Key Resistance Levels
Entry Point: Sell with a small position when the price rallies to the $4850-$4865 area and shows signs of stagnation (e.g., upper shadow, low volume).
Target Price: $4800-$4814
Stop-Loss Price: Above $4880
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š¬ Share your thoughts in the comments:
Do you think the ceasefire agreement will be extended on Wednesday? Will gold prices break through $4,900 or fall back to $4,700?
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