Gold enters the new trading week with sentiment supported by renewed geopolitical uncertainty after tensions between the U.S. and Iran intensified. Rising oil prices continue to fuel inflation concerns, while markets are also preparing for another week of Fed commentary and key U.S. economic releases. Although geopolitical risks support safe-haven demand, a resilient U.S. Dollar and elevated Treasury yields may still limit Gold’s upside.
From an ICT perspective, XAUUSD has completed a significant sell-side liquidity sweep into the discount array around the recent Order Block. The sharp rejection from that zone, followed by a Market Structure Shift (MSS), suggests institutions have started accumulating long positions.
Price is now retracing into a nearby Fair Value Gap (FVG), which could serve as the final mitigation before buyers attempt another expansion higher. As long as this imbalance holds, the current pullback is likely a liquidity refill rather than a bearish reversal.
The first objective is the internal liquidity around 4018ā4022. A successful break and acceptance above this area would expose the next buy-side liquidity pool near 4050ā4055, followed by the higher-timeframe Institutional Supply around 4076ā4082.
ICT Weekly Scenarios
Bullish Case
Hold above the bullish FVG and Order Block.
Break internal liquidity at 4020.
Target 4050 ā 4080 buy-side liquidity.
Bearish Case
Lose the FVG support with strong displacement.
Price revisits 3980ā3990 discount liquidity before any meaningful recovery.
Key ICT Levels
Bullish Order Block: 3962ā3968
Mitigation FVG: 3998ā4006
Internal Liquidity: 4018ā4022
Buy-side Liquidity: 4050ā4055
Institutional Supply: 4076ā4082
Outlook: The current structure favors continuation to the upside after liquidity has been collected below recent lows. However, confirmation above internal liquidity remains essential before expecting a larger bullish expansion. Patience around the FVG reaction will likely provide the highest-probability setup for the week ahead.