If Elon Musk wants SpaceX (SPCX) to challenge mobile operators such as T-Mobile (TMUS), AT&T (T), and Verizon (VZ), it won’t come cheap.
In fact, in a new note on Monday, Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned estimated that it could cost $50 billion to $130 billion for SpaceX to build its own mobile network.
“To be clear, we still believe SpaceX is most likely to end with a partnership for its mobile business. But, the company continues to indicate a terrestrial buildout is possible,” Harned wrote.
“We’ve seen estimates for a SpaceX greenfield network build from $15 billion to $200 billion, but not yet a great, detailed bottom-up build,” Harned added. “The most common approaches to use Dish’s build and inflate a little. Dish spent ~$7.4 billion of cash capex between 2020-2024 for ~24k sites and ~268 million pops (all spectrum costs + interest excluded).”
SpaceX stock continues to trade off its post-IPO lows, with shares stabilizing despite SpaceX’s spending plans for the years to come remaining a great unknown.
Shares have rallied from an intraday low of $104.83 on Aug. 3 up to $142 on Aug. 31.
SpaceX’s total capital expenditures in the second quarter were $18.4 billion, well above analyst estimates of around $6 billion.
JPMorgan analysts estimate in a new note that SpaceX will spend a staggering $200 billion (or more) on capex in 2027 and 2028.
“SpaceX IPO’ed with great (and we would argue, unrealistic) expectations. In the weeks since, the shares have pulled back sharply,” MoffettNathanson analyst Julie Zhu said. “One might reasonably argue that the pullback suggests a dampening of those expectations. But perhaps there is a bigger question with which the market is grappling. What, exactly, is SpaceX?”
“Until we have more clarity on the big questions — what is SpaceX? — and until expectations reset to what SpaceX’s category-of-one technology can more realistically achieve, we remain on the sidelines,” Zhu added.
Brian Sozzi is Yahoo Finance’s Executive Editor, host of the ‘Power Players With Brian Sozzi’ podcast and a member of Yahoo Finance’s editorial leadership team. Follow Sozzi on X @BrianSozzi, Instagram, and LinkedIn. Tips on stories? Email brian.sozzi@yahoofinance.com.
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