📉 1. Market Structure
There was an ascending channel (purple lines) → it was broken below.
This = structure change → bullish → bearish (short-term)
The last move is a strong downward impulse (breakdown).
👉 Conclusion: short-term trend = downward.
📊 2. Key Levels
🔴 Support:
607–611 → currently tested (very important)
582 → next target
545 → deep target (if panic selling)
🟢 Resistance:
636
656
685 → key HTF resistance
⚠️ 3. What just happened
Breakdown from the channel
Loss of level ~636
Now you are testing the demand zone ~610
This is the market’s decision point.
📉 4. Indicators
Stoch RSI:
In the oversold zone
But WARNING → in a downtrend, it may stay there for a long time.
MACD:
Crossover down
Histogram falling → momentum bearish
👉 Conclusion: no reversal signal (yet)
🔮 5. Scenarios
🟥 Scenario 1 (more likely now):
➡️ Break 607 → going lower
target: 582
then even 545
This will be a continuation of the downtrend.
🟨 Scenario 2 (bounce):
➡️ Defense 607 + quick return to:
620–630
Then:
short squeeze
return to 636 → 656
🟩 Scenario 3 (bullish) Only):
➡️ Only a return above 656–685
= trend change