Hello everyone,
The gold market right now may give the impression that it could move higher, but in reality, it’s quite the opposite. When you align the latest news with the current price structure on the chart, the picture becomes very clear: this is still a downtrend that has not been broken.
Recent fundamentals are not supportive of gold. Inflation continues to face pressure from rising oil prices, which has delayed expectations of Fed easing. This keeps the USD relatively strong, and as long as the dollar does not show real weakness, gold will struggle to sustain any upward momentum. Geopolitical developments may create short-term volatility, but they are not strong enough to shift the broader market direction.
From a technical perspective, what matters is not the recent bounce, but how price reacts around resistance. The overall structure continues to form lower highs, while the descending trendline clearly acts as a strong ceiling. The second wedge has already broken to the downside, and the current bounce is essentially a retest of that resistance zone. This is a very typical behavior in a downtrend: price doesn’t reverse, it simply returns to sweep liquidity before continuing lower.
As long as price remains below the trendline and fails to break resistance, any rally should be viewed as corrective rather than a true trend change. In this context, the higher probability scenario is a continuation to the downside, with a projected target around the $4,300 area, where buying interest previously emerged.
In summary, the downtrend is not over — and until it is truly broken, every rally is simply an opportunity for the trend to continue.
Wishing you all successful trading!