This is not the place to get excited about fresh shorts.
The 4H bearish ABC has already delivered. Price pushed cleanly into the ABC target and swept external liquidity after a strong displacement leg lower. That tells me the downside objective has been met, at least for this leg.
So the read from here shifts.
Instead of chasing price at the lows, I’m watching for rebalance.
The first magnet is the daily internal liquidity around the 3.09 area. If the retracement expands further, the more important zone sits higher inside the WCL / premium supply region around 3.10–3.12.
As long as price stays below that WCL, the broader idea remains bearish. In that case, any bounce into internal liquidity or premium is more likely a corrective pullback than a true reversal.
My current framework is simple:
- Downside delivery already happened
- External liquidity has been touched
- Current location is reaction territory
- The better continuation read comes from a retracement into higher prices, not from selling the bottom
So for me, the clean idea is patience. Let price retrace. Let it rebalance the imbalance. Then watch whether sellers step back in from internal liquidity or the WCL zone.
If price starts accepting above the WCL, this bearish continuation idea weakens fast.
Bias, context, location. Not a signal.
Not financial advice.