Gold is sitting in an interesting spot right now. The weekly chart is still in an uptrend and recently pushed to a new high at 4857.44, but on the daily timeframe, price is trading deep in the upper half of its 20-day range (high 5044.43, low 4097.98). That combination usually means we get a pullback to refuel before any continuation higher, which gives us two setups to watch:
Long setup – pullback into the 4H FVG
There’s an unmitigated 4H bullish Fair Value Gap between 4686.71 and 4698.35, right around the 4H 50 EMA (4700.38). That zone also lines up with an old resistance level that should now act as support.
I’m not using a limit order here. I want to see price actually tap the zone and give me a clean 15-minute confirmation – either a strong bullish engulfing close or a clear wick rejection before taking a long around 4695. Stop below the FVG at 4675.
First target is the recent consolidation low at 4760 (just reclaiming it). Second target is the weekly high at 4857.44.
Short setup – rejection at the 4790-4800 shelf
Because price is heavy in the daily premium zone and hasn’t been able to push through the weekly high, a pullback first is likely. There’s a clear supply shelf between 4790 and 4800 – the 4800 round number is also psychological resistance.
If price rallies into that zone, I’m watching for a 15-minute bearish rejection (engulfing or sharp wick) before shorting around 4795. Stop at 4815.
First target is the 4H consolidation low at 4730.58. Second target is the top of the 4H FVG at 4698.35 – which would then set up the long scenario described above.
Bias
No strong directional bias until one of these zones gets tested. If gold pulls back cleanly into the FVG with a good reaction, I’m buying. If it rallies into 4790-4800 and gets rejected, I’m shorting. Both scenarios actually feed into each other – a short from premium can give us the discount pullback we want for the long.