- President Trump says the ceasefire with Iran is over
- Risk-off sentiment sees fall below 63k, US futures fall 1%, oil rises 6%
- Stablecoin liquidity points to weaker buying power
- BTC technical analysis
Bitcoin is falling sharply as renewed tensions in the Middle East weigh on risk appetite, while a contraction in the stablecoin market points to declining liquidity across the crypto ecosystem.
Bitcoin is down 1.6% over the past 24 hours, slipping back below 63k. Ethereum has fallen 2.2%, while the total cryptocurrency market capitalisation has declined 1.9% over the same period.
Middle East Tensions Spark Broad Risk-off Move
President Trump announced at the NATO summit that the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran was over, reigniting fears of a broader conflict and renewed disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Markets were already nervous following strikes between the two countries earlier this week, which highlighted the fragility of the ceasefire. However, today’s reaction marks a shift in sentiment, raising questions over whether diplomacy between the US and Iran can succeed.
have surged around 6% over the past 24 hours, reviving inflation concerns. Higher oil prices have also pushed higher, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to keep monetary policy restrictive for longer.
The shift is seen across the broader financial markets. The German DAX has fallen around 2.5%, while U.S. equity futures are down more than 1%, as investors take risk off the table rather than a crypto-specific weakness.
Attention will still turn to today’s , which relate to June’s hawkish policy meeting. However, if geopolitical tensions continue to dominate sentiment, macro data may temporarily take a back seat. That said, any indication that policymakers remain concerned about inflation could reinforce the recent move higher in Treasury yields and the , creating a more challenging backdrop for Bitcoin.
The key question now is whether the latest escalation proves temporary or develops into a more full-scale escalation. Any signs of tensions easing could allow risk appetite to recover quickly, while further deterioration in relations would likely keep pressure on Bitcoin and other risk assets.
Stablecoin Liquidity Points To Weaker Buying Power
Beyond geopolitics, on-chain liquidity is also becoming less supportive.
are often viewed as dry powder for crypto markets. When stablecoin supply expands, it typically signals fresh capital entering the ecosystem. Conversely, falling supply suggests liquidity is being withdrawn.
Data shows the stablecoin market contracted by 2.4% ($7.7 billion) in June to around $312 billion, marking its largest monthly decline since 2022 following the collapse of TerraUSD. Over the same period, Bitcoin fell around 20%.
While one month is not a trend, continued declines in stablecoin supply would suggest capital is leaving the crypto ecosystem, reducing the number of buyers on the sidelines available to support a sustained recovery in Bitcoin prices.
Taken together, deteriorating liquidity and a more challenging macro backdrop suggest Bitcoin’s recent rebound may struggle to gain further momentum unless geopolitical risks ease and capital begins flowing back into the crypto market.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
Bitcoin’s recovery from the 2026 low at 57.7K ran into resistance at the falling trendline, which has been in place since early May, before turning lower. This, combined with the RSI below 50, keeps sellers hopeful of further downside.
Support is seen at 60K, the psychological level. A break below this level would expose 57.7K. A move below there would create a lower low, bringing 55K into focus, ahead of 50K, the August 2024 low.
Any recovery would first need to break above 64.5K, the July high, to expose the 50 SMA at 65K. Above here, 67.3K, the mid-June high, comes into focus, ahead of the 200 SMA at 74.3K.
Disclaimer: The content provided here is for informational purposes only and is not intended as personal investment advice and does not constitute a solicitation or invitation to engage in any financial transactions, investments, or related activities. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The financial products offered by the Company are complex and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. These products may not be suitable for all investors. Before engaging, you should consider whether you understand how these leveraged products work and whether you can afford the high risk of losing your money. The Company does not accept clients from the Restricted Jurisdictions as indicated on its website / T&Cs. Some services or products may not be available in your jurisdiction. The applicable legal entity and its respective products and services depend on the client’s country of residence and the entity with which the client has established a contractual relationship during registration.