Momentum
D1 momentum is currently decreasing, therefore there is a high probability that price will continue to move sideways or decline over the next 2–3 days
H4 momentum is currently preparing to reverse upward, therefore we may see a bullish move lasting around 3–5 H4 candles
H1 momentum is increasing, therefore price may continue to rise or move sideways until H1 momentum reaches the overbought zone
Elliott Wave Structure
The current D1 wave structure is still being observed as an abcde pattern. Although D1 momentum is decreasing, price is not dropping strongly, suggesting that wave d may still be continuing and could extend into next week, implying another bullish momentum cycle to form a top and complete wave d
On H4, the structure may be forming a WXY corrective pattern (in blue), where wave Y could be developing into an ending triangle. The internal 3-wave structures are clearly visible within each sub-wave of this triangle, so we continue to monitor it. The key characteristic of this pattern is that once completed, it often leads to a strong and steep decline
The invalidation level for this structure is that price must not exceed 4947, to ensure the rule that wave 3 is not the shortest remains valid
On H1, if price is truly moving within an ending triangle, then the internal structure should follow a 3-3-3-3-3 pattern, and so far the structure is respecting this condition
We expect a WXY zigzag structure to be forming, where wave W is a completed 5-wave structure, and the market is currently in wave X. After wave X completes, a bullish move may develop to form wave Y
Within wave X, an ABC corrective structure is forming
Wave C targets:
4755 (C = A)
4730 (Fibonacci 0.618 of W)
4700 (C = 1.618 A)
In the short term, we expect the 4755 area to act as a Buy zone since H4 momentum is in the oversold condition. If price reaches this zone and meets the required conditions, a buy position can be considered
Trading Plan
Execution
Buy Zone: 4756 – 4754
SL: 4735
TP1: 4788
TP2: 4839
TP3: 4896