Geopolitical turmoil combined with high interest rate pressure:

📊As of now, international spot gold (London Gold) is at 4769.3 US dollars, surging 111.08 US dollars intraday, an increase of 2.38%, and once hit a high of 4778.35 US dollars during the session. Today’s strong gold price pattern is mainly driven by the stronger-than-expected escalation of the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East. At the same time, affected by the intertwined impact of the Federal Reserve’s high interest rate policy and global central bank gold purchases, long-short competition in the market has entered an intense stage.

🔥The most important news today is undoubtedly the official expiration of the 48-hour ultimatum issued by the United States to Iran. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have suddenly surged, becoming the absolute main driver of the sharp rise in gold prices.

🚀Around the expiration of the ultimatum, the US-Israel coalition launched large-scale air strikes against Iran, targeting Iran’s oil export hub Kharg Island, the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant and multiple civilian infrastructure facilities. Iran has made a clear statement. Meanwhile, the US Embassy’s diplomatic support center near Baghdad International Airport in Iraq was attacked, and multiple explosions occurred in Doha, the capital of Qatar, overnight. The conflict in the Middle East is spreading rapidly.

💰Affected by the expiration of the US-Iran ultimatum, gold prices gapped higher and quickly broke through the resistance level of 4700 US dollars. Driven by safe-haven buying, it continued to rise. After breaking through 4800 US dollars, gold is expected to extend its upward momentum further.

🎯Outlook and core logic

💎In the short term, the situation in the Middle East remains the core variable dominating gold prices. If the US-Iran conflict escalates further or even breaks out into a full-scale war, gold prices will break through 4800 US dollars and surge towards 4850-4900 US dollars. If the situation eases unexpectedly, safe-haven funds will withdraw rapidly, and gold prices will fall sharply, testing the support at 4700-4680 US dollars.