SYMBOL: CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS | DIRECTION: LONG | TIMEFRAME: Weekly

Published: April 2026

The alt market has been quiet for a long time. Not broken. Not dead. Quiet. That is an important distinction. Quiet markets at major support are not a reason to look away. They are a reason to pay very close attention.

On the above weekly chart the Crypto Total Market Cap excluding the top 10 coins is sitting on the 365-week simple moving average, the green line. A number of reasons now exist to be long. They include:

The 365 SMA. Look left. Every meaningful rally in the alt market over the past decade has either launched from or been confirmed by this moving average. The 2020 cycle began here. The 2022 accumulation base formed here. It is holding again now. This is not a coincidence. This is the market telling you where the long-term buyers live.

Price action and RSI resistance breakouts. The descending channel that has suppressed price since the late 2024 highs has been broken. RSI has simultaneously broken out of its own falling wedge, labelled clearly on the chart. When both break together, the move that follows is rarely small.

Bullish divergence. Price printed lower lows into the 365 SMA. RSI did not confirm, it held materially higher and has now broken upward. Classic positive divergence on the weekly timeframe. The kind that has preceded every meaningful alt season in the past five years.

The forecast. The horizontal blue resistance above, the level that capped the market in 2021 and again in 2024 is approximately 150% from current levels. That is not a forecast pulled from thin air. It is defined by the structure of the chart. The measured move. The obvious destination.

What cancels the thesis?

A weekly close below the 365 SMA cancels the setup. This is where the stop lives. It has held every test for three years. A confirmed close beneath it means the cycle is in more trouble than the chart currently suggests.

Is it possible price falls further? Sure. Is it probable? No.

Ww

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Disclaimer
This idea is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Trading cryptocurrencies involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.