Despite today’s fall, and the lack of further upside at the end of last week, gold has managed to hold onto a decent portion of the gains built over the past couple of weeks. But it remains range bound. For today, initial resistance sits around $4,730, which marks Friday’s low.
Last week, gold was struggling to break through the $4,800–$4,850 resistance zone. This remains the key area to watch for this week too. It’s a confluence zone—previous support turned resistance, the underside of a broken trendline, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the March sell-off all lining up.
Until that area is convincingly cleared, it’s difficult to make a strong case for sustained upside.
Beyond that, $5,000 stands out as the next major level—not just psychologically, but also technically, with the 78.6% retracement sitting just below it. A clean break above $5,000 would likely shift the tone more decisively in favour of the bulls.
Meanwhile, if the selling resumes, then the focus will shift to $4,660 as the first level of support—an area that previously acted as resistance and could now turn supportive.
Below that, $4,600 and then $4,500 will be the next downside targets.
However, the key level to keep an eye on is $4,400. This level held firmly back in early February, and although it briefly gave way in March, the swift recovery above it suggests it still carries weight. A clean break and close below $4,400 this time would mark a more meaningful—and notably negative—shift in structure.
As long as gold remains between $4,400 on the downside and $5,000 on the upside, the market looks broadly range-bound.
That’s not necessarily a negative—it simply calls for a different approach. Given the volatility, there have been plenty of opportunities, but it’s more a case of trading between levels rather than positioning for extended trends.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com