Taking lead from our previous analysis, KSE-100 remains under pressure after failing to break above its previous ATH near 191K.
Earlier this year, the index corrected from around 191K to 144K, a decline of approximately 24.6%. After forming a temporary bottom near 144K, the index recovered strongly and attempted to retest the ATH zone.
However, as discussed in our earlier analysis, the index failed to cross that level and has now formed a lower high.
Trend Hierarchy
Secular Trend: Bullish
Intermediate Trend: Sideways / Corrective
Short-Term Trend: Bearish Pressure
Market Structure
Technically, the failure to break above ATH and formation of a lower high is a warning sign.
This does not confirm that the bull market is over, but it does show that the index is not ready yet for a fresh aggressive bullish leg.
In simple terms, we have a half bearish signal, not a complete bear-market confirmation.
Outlook
Our broader view remains that the bull market is not over. However, the index likely needs more time before attempting another sustainable move above ATH.
This may take weeks or even months.
During this phase, the market may remain sideways and frustrating, with sharp sell-offs followed by sudden recoveries.
Strategy
This is not an environment for blind aggressive buying.
Capital rotation and stock selection will remain critical. Strong stocks may continue to perform, while weak or extended names may face pressure.
Stance
➡️ Bull Market Not Over Yet
➡️ ATH Rejection Is A Warning Signal
➡️ Lower High Formed Near Resistance
➡️ Market May Need More Time
➡️ Sideways / Choppy Phase Likely
➡️ Capital Rotation And Stock Selection Are Key
Price tells the story.
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