The Nifty 50 may test the 21,750–22,100 zone based on the monthly timeframe. Following this, two possible scenarios could unfold:
If Nifty holds the 21,800–22,000 support range, it may bounce back and begin a fresh upward move toward new highs. In this case, my long-term target is 31,150.
Alternatively, Nifty could test the 22,000 level, deliver a temporary “dead cat bounce,” and then resume its decline—especially if geopolitical tensions escalate. On the weekly timeframe, there is an open gap near 20,300–20,100, which the market may attempt to fill before eventually moving higher again.
TIP: For a confirmed trend reversal, it is important to closely monitor Crude Oil. A cooling-off in crude prices could act as a key signal for Nifty to reverse and present a potential long trading opportunity.
~ Based on my experience, this setup tends to work well during war-like situations.