The international gold market is currently at a critical juncture between bullish and bearish forces, with the $4,800 level acting as a key battleground for both sides. The repeated back-and-forth price action has put many investors in a wait-and-see position. Looking back at this week’s trend, gold traded within a narrow range of 4,780–4,860 US dollars. Behind the rising trading volume lies the intertwined interplay of three core variables: expectations of Federal Reserve policy, shifts in the geopolitical situation, and central bank gold purchases.
The expiration of the US-Iran ceasefire talks is a major variable next week. The temporary US-Iran ceasefire agreement is set to expire on April 22. Although current negotiations show positive signals, core differences such as the nuclear issue and control over the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved. If negotiations proceed smoothly and the ceasefire is extended, the risk premium accumulated from previous conflicts will fully fade away. If talks break down and conflicts escalate, risk aversion will rise rapidly.
Federal Reserve policy remains the core long-term factor weighing on gold prices. Intensive speeches by Fed officials and the release of US economic data next week will further clarify the policy direction. The US March CPI rose 3.3% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations. Coupled with strong non-farm payroll data, the market has pushed back the first Fed rate cut from June to September, with a probability of 87%. As US Treasury yields rebounded, the market shifted from non-interest-bearing gold to US bonds.
The long-term support from global central bank gold purchases cannot be ignored, yet it is unlikely to change the short-term volatile pattern. Central bank gold buying represents a long-term strategic allocation, which will not directly alter the short-term fluctuation trend of gold prices, nor offset the short-term impact from Fed policy and geopolitical tensions.
Based on the above analysis, the bullish structure of gold remains unchanged. The three core pillars supporting gold’s strength — central bank purchases, expectations of an interest rate-cutting cycle, and geopolitical risks — have not been broken. The recent volatility or pullback is more of a normal correction within the uptrend, rather than a trend reversal.
Gold is trading in a high-level range. Do not be greedy; take profits in good time. Move forward steadily, and this will help you secure greater returns.
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