Traders placed a series of bets worth $430 million on a drop in crude prices just 15 minutes before US President Donald Trump said he would extend a ceasefire with Iran on Tuesday.
It is the third time this month, and the fourth in total, that large, well-timed directional bets on the oil price have been made shortly before major announcements on the Iran war. One combined wager in March was worth $500 million, while April’s bets have together totalled some $2.1 billion.
Between 1954 and 1956, GMT on Tuesday, 4,260 lots of sales hit the oil market, worth a combined $430 million, based on the prevailing Brent futures price, according to LSEG data. Trump said he would extend the ceasefire indefinitely at 2010 GMT.
The Brent market settles at 1830 GMT, meaning these trades took place in what is known as post-settlement hours, when volumes are usually extremely limited.
The trades did not have much impact on the price, which edged down to $100.66 a barrel, from $100.91 before they took place. After Trump’s announcement, Brent crude futures fell to a low of $96.83 in the minute that followed. They were last trading at $99.2 a barrel at 1200 GMT on Wednesday.
On March 23, 15 minutes before Trump announced a delay to threatened attacks on Iranian power infrastructure, anonymous traders placed $500 million on a drop in the oil price. Similarly, on April 7, bets worth $950 million went through just hours before Trump’s announcement of a two-week ceasefire.
On April 17, some 20 minutes prior to the Iranian foreign minister posting on social media that the Strait of Hormuz would be open to commercial shipping, traders placed $760 million in bets on a falling oil price.
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating a series of oil futures trades, including those on March 23 and April 7, that were placed shortly before major policy shifts by Trump related to the war in Iran, a person familiar with the matter said on April 15.