Yesterday’s softer U.S. payroll report triggered a broad U.S. dollar selloff, sending USD/CAD lower.
From a macro perspective, this looks more like a corrective move than a trend reversal.
Bullish Drivers
Weak oil prices continue to limit Canadian dollar strength.
Fed–BoC policy divergence remains supportive of USD.
Medium-term trend structure is intact.
Bearish Drivers
Softer U.S. labor data.
Lower Treasury yields.
Short-term dollar weakness.
Trading Plan
Primary bias: Buy pullbacks.
Invalidation: Sustained USD weakness combined with a strong recovery in oil.
Trade Quality: A-