Volkswagen appears to have completed a full 5-wave impulse cycle, topping out around the 2021 highs. Since then, price action has transitioned into a broader corrective phase, likely unfolding as an ABC structure.
Wave A marked the initial sell-off, followed by a Wave B recovery. Currently, price action suggests we are in Wave C, which typically represents the final leg of a correction.
From a structural perspective, the trend remains weak:
- Lower highs and lower lows
- No confirmed reversal yet
- Price trading below key retracement levels
Key Levels
- 61.8% retracement (~105€): First major resistance
- 78.6% – 88.7% zone (~55–75€): High-probability demand zone
- Long-term support (~34€): Historical floor
My Plan (Long Setup)
I am not looking to enter at current levels.
Instead, I’m watching for price to move into the 55€–75€ zone, which aligns with:
- Deep Fibonacci retracement levels
- Potential completion of Wave C
- Long-term value area within the broader range
This zone offers a high risk/reward long opportunity if:
- Price shows signs of stabilization
- Selling pressure weakens
- A structural shift begins (higher lows / reclaim of key levels)
Invalidation / Risk
- A clean breakdown below ~55€ would suggest a deeper structural shift
- No confirmation = no position
Conclusion
Volkswagen is not currently in a trend phase, but rather in a long-term corrective structure.
The focus is on patience and positioning in extreme value zones, not chasing price.
This is a planned long setup, not an active trade.