XAUUSD: Bear Pennant Under 4000 After the Weekly Close – Next Stop 3975/3950?
Gold closed the week at ~3997, under 4000 and 167 points below the weekly open. After Friday’s flush to 3975.61, price spent the afternoon in a tight pennant just below 4000. After a strong drop, a small, tightening pause like this is usually a bear pennant: the market catching its breath before the next leg.
Big picture is bearish: the H4 head & shoulders (target ~3935) and the daily triangle both broke down this week. Price is oversold, though (H4 RSI ~28), so expect sharp bounces.
Scenario A – Pennant breakdown (preferred)
Trigger: M15 close below the pennant’s lower line (~3991), then a weak retest of it
Stop: above 4006
Targets: 3975.6 (Friday’s low), then 3950, about 3R
Scenario B – Fake break up, sell higher
If price pops above 4000, look for a rejection at 4013-4026 (London open, NY open, daily open)
Stop: 4034
Targets: 3997, then 3975
Scenario C – Bounce from the low
An M15 bullish Bat sits at ~3979 (stop ~3970). Only with a strong rejection candle and high volume, for a quick move back to 4000. Counter-trend: small size.
Watch the Sunday open for a gap. Nothing to do inside the pennant.
Opens and round numbers from Pattern Chief Lite.
Not financial advice. Plan entry, stop and target before you enter.