DAILY PLAN | XAUUSD
1. Market structure
Gold fell hard on Oct 22, from 4139.38 to a low of 4021.16, and the D1 candle closed at 4024.51, clearly below the 4066–4228 range that had held since Sep 29. Price is now moving sideways around 4027.
– D1: the chain of lower highs continues: 4227.53 (Oct 2), 4217.40 (Oct 12), 4199.08 (Oct 16), 4190.42 (Oct 19), 4155.57 (Oct 20), 4142.23 (Oct 22). The Oct 22 candle has a long bearish body, closed near its low and below the range low 4066.54 (Oct 7), confirming the breakdown. Price is now testing the old June–August lows at 4019–4024.
– H4: after the 4105.02 low, H4 sold off steadily with lower highs at 4124.00, 4102.86, 4092.56, 4088.37 and 4048.55. Every bounce was shallow and no bullish reversal candle has formed.
– H1 and M15: H1 highs keep stepping down: 4065.00, 4053.29, 4048.55, 4046.66, 4032.79. Price tagged 4021.16 and then 4021.28, a small double bottom near 4021 on M15, and the latest bounce only reached 4032.79.
Preferred view: the downtrend is clear on both D1 and H4. Favor SELL on a pullback that retests the broken zone 4055–4065. Do not chase shorts right on 4019–4024 support. BUY only as a short bounce at the deeper 3996–4007 support.
2. Key price zones
Resistance:
4088–4103: H1 highs on Oct 22 (4091.84, 4092.56, 4102.86) and H4 high 4088.37.
4054–4067: old range low 4066.54 (Oct 7), H1 lows on Oct 22 (4057.55, 4054.18) and H1 highs 4063.10, 4065.00. Former support now acting as resistance.
4044–4049: H1 highs on Oct 22–23 (4044.76, 4046.66, 4048.55).
Support:
4019–4024: Oct 22–23 lows (4021.16, 4021.28) and old D1 lows 4019.24 (Aug 3), 4020.98 (Jul 31), 4021.82 (Jul 8), 4023.87 (Jun 11).
3996–4007: D1 lows Jul 29 (3996.06), Jul 21 (3999.92), Jun 29 (4000.32) and Nov 18, 2025 (3997.98).
3959–3970: D1 lows Jun 24 (3959.08), Jul 17 (3959.80) and Jul 16 (3969.34).
3. Main scenarios – SELL with the trend, short BUY bounce
Scenario 1: SELL at 4055–4065
– Wait for a pullback that retests the broken range low 4054–4067. Confirmation: a Pin Bar with a long upper wick, a bearish Engulfing on H1, or a bullish structure break on M15.
– Reference plan:
Entry: 4055–4065
Stop Loss: 4076
TP1: 4035 | TP2: 4024 | TP3: 4008
R:R (from mid-zone 4060): TP1 1:1.6 | TP2 1:2.2 | TP3 1:3.2
– TP1 sits below the 4044–4049 H1 highs, TP2 is the 4019–4024 support, TP3 is the top of the 3996–4007 zone. No SELL if H1 closes above 4076.
Scenario 2: BUY at 3998–4006
– This is a counter-trend trade for a short bounce only. Wait for price to reach the D1 lows at 3996–4007 and show a signal: a Hammer or Pin Bar with a long lower wick on H1, a bullish Engulfing, or a bearish structure break on M15. Price must hold above 3996.
– Reference plan:
Entry: 3998–4006
Stop Loss: 3988
TP1: 4021 | TP2: 4035 | TP3: 4050
R:R (from mid-zone 4002): TP1 1:1.4 | TP2 1:2.4 | TP3 1:3.4
– TP1 is the old 4019–4024 support, TP2 is the H1 bounce high area, TP3 sits just below the SELL zone. Consider taking partial profit at TP1. No BUY if H1 closes below 3988.
4. Alternative scenario – break of 3996
– If H4 closes below 3996 and a retest of 3996–4007 fails from below, look for a further SELL toward 3959–3970, then the 3942.10 low (Jun 30).
– Do not chase a strong bearish candle. Wait for a retest to get a sensible entry and SL.
5. Invalidation and opposite scenario
– An H4 close back above 4067 (back inside the old range) would turn the breakdown into a false break and invalidate the SELL view.
– In that case, wait for price to hold above 4067 for a BUY, targeting 4088–4103 and then 4142.
6. Conclusion
– Main bias for Oct 23: bearish after price broke down out of the 4066–4228 range. Zones to watch: SELL 4055–4065 with the trend, short BUY 3998–4006. Main SELL targets are 4024, then 4008.
– News to watch: US Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI at 09:45 ET, revised UoM Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 ET. Check the spread before placing orders.
– Be patient and wait for price reaction at structural zones; do not enter in the middle between the two zones.
Note: This is a personal technical analysis view, not investment advice. Entry, SL and TP zones are for reference only. Traders should assess their own risk, manage their capital and wait for confirmation signals before making any decision.